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An update on America's newest Democrat Senator, Arlen Spector. The numbers are in, and we now know why Spector was worried! POLITICO's Congressional blogger Glenn Thrush reports:
Over the weekend, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported on the gory details of that internal Arlen Specter poll that launched him into the Democratic Party. (h/t JMart)
Three takeaway points:
1. Specter's vote for the stimulus branded him a traitor with the GOP base, cutting his approval rating in half over a period of weeks.
2. The mass exodus of eastern Pa. moderates has pushed the party far out of Arlen's safety zone.
3. He trailed Pat Toomey by 15 percent in a three-way Republican primary.
Ouch. A senior Senator losing by 15 percent in a primary with THREE CONTENDERS. Ouch. Specter was not a loss to the Republican Party, because, as we see in this poll, he would have lost anyway! However, Arlen's woes are not over. POLITICO's Glenn Thrush also reported some other numbers in an early post on his blog:
New Democrat Arlen Specter leads Pat Toomey, the guy who drove him out of the GOP, by a 53-33 margin, according to a new Quinnipiac poll.
But he only beats former Homeland Security chief/Penn. Gov. Tom Ridge by a three-point margin, 46-43, the poll finds.
The poll finds that Democrats, by and large, are okay with Specter's switch. Republicans, on the other hand, hate the guy -- with Specter struggling to hit double-digits with GOP registrants. Details:
In the Specter-Toomey matchup, Republicans back Toomey 74 – 18 percent while Democrats go with their new convert 85–4 percent. Men back Specter 47 – 41 percent, as do women 59 – 26 percent. Union households go Democratic 62–27 percent.
In a Specter-Ridge face-off, Republicans go with Ridge 82 – 10 percent, while Specter takes Democrats 78 – 14 percent. Men shift to Ridge 50 – 41 percent, while women remain Democratic 51 – 37 percent. Union households back Specter 57 – 34 percent. --------------------------------
Arlen decision to save his proverbial "political hide" might have paid off after all! However, he has certainly lost respect with, not only PA Republicans, as we saw in the previous poll and this poll, but American's across the country. More importantly, however, is one factor unreachable by the poll numbers; the people's principles. When the people are given the facts, as Toomey will hopefully be able to present them in this election cycle, they may have a better chance of turning on Arlen. The Spector campaign is going to have to fight, tooth and nail, to preserve itself. It is my personal opinion that Arlen will lose, however. Specter is not a loss to the Republican Party, but he will be a loss to Democrats if he loses. They are going to bet it all on Arlen Specter in 2010. They know that if he loses to Toomey their margin of a filibuster proof Senate will die with him. If Specter cannot live up to this 53-33 poll, then it will prove that big name endorsers, who we will definitely see in 2010, and money cannot overcome principle. If Specter wins, however, it will be a victory for the Democrat Party, not Specter.
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